Welcome to The MMA Stock Exchange, where every month we evaluate the biggest movers in the sport. Buy before the market catches on or sell before the bubble bursts.

BUY: Arman Tsarukyan 

Justin Gaethje’s triumph over Ilia Topuria on the White House lawn is the biggest combat sports story of the year, maybe even the decade. Yet the night’s greatest beneficiary may have been a man who wasn’t even in the building: the number-one contender-in-waiting, Arman Tsarukyan.

Just six months prior, at UFC 324, the broadcast closed on a shot of Arman Tsarukyan. He hadn’t fought that night. Justin Gaethje had just beaten Paddy Pimblett for the interim title, and as the celebrations carried on inside the cage and the Vegas crowd filtered out, Tsarukyan remained seated, staring blankly into the camera. The implication was clear: he should have been in that octagon, and he would’ve beaten both men handily.

A lot has changed since then. If you were still under the impression that Justin Gaethje was some kind of schmuck, you’ve certainly been corrected. But my sentiment from that night remains mostly unchanged: Arman Tsarukyan—the most dominant grappler in the lightweight division, full stop—is simply too much for Gaethje to handle. 

With Ilia Topuria out of the picture, Charles Oliveira’s got a newfound claim to the title. Arman Tsarukyan will most likely have to clear yet another title eliminator en route to a shot at the undisputed championship. But he’s already outgrappled and outstruck Oliveira before, and I’m confident he can do it again.

I’ve never been more convinced that Arman Tsarukyan will be champion of the world a year from now.

HOLD: Ilia Topuria

Whether you want to call it quitting or not, Ilia Topuria’s night at the White House ended on the stool, with his face buried in his lap. He resigned himself.

We know now that Ilia Topuria cannot play the nail. If Arman Tsarukyan gets him to the mat and rains down his vicious ground-and-pound, I can’t say with certainty that Topuria will stay composed. He may never possess that same competitive edge again.

Still, we can’t bite too hard on the narrative. We’ve watched Ilia Topuria practically walk through Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira, both current top-five lightweights. Do we really believe those fights would go any differently today? Do Paddy Pimblett or Benoît Saint Denis suddenly pose any serious resistance?

Ilia Topuria has come crashing back to earth. But even at his lowest, there’s a very short list of fighters capable of testing him.

BUY: Manel Kape 

Manel Kape couldn’t have asked for a more illuminating victory than his third-round stoppage of Kyoji Horiguchi. That now makes four straight knockouts for Kape, who is looking like a Francis Ngannou of the flyweight division.

There had been something of a stigma surrounding Manel Kape for years. Eye pokes, missed weight, PED allegations, last-minute cancellations–some more substantiated than others–and, most infamously, his listless showing against Muhammad Mokaev in the summer of 2024 all reinforced the same narrative that Kape was unreliable. He’d developed a reputation as a front-runner, a fighter who, if things weren’t going his way, and if they weren’t going his way early, would shell up.

That’s why, when Joshua Van needed a title challenger last spring, UFC matchmakers gave the nod to Tatsuro Taira, even though Kape’s case was arguably much stronger.

Horiguchi controlled much of the fight through the first two rounds, using his wrestling to keep Kape off balance. Things appeared to go from bad to worse when Kape injured his lead leg early in the third, until only moments later when he dropped Horiguchi with a right hand and finished him with follow-up strikes on the ground.

“I never give up,” Kape said afterwards. “I know adversity…One thing about me, if I touch you one time, believe me, you’re going to be dead.”

There’s no denying Kape now.

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